Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 21.106167 25.359403 30.034393 35.526118 41.771383 48.623521 56.679911
2025-08-31 14.123264 19.476390 25.975650 34.323726 44.630417 56.804526 72.127212
2025-09-07 10.908636 16.778393 24.472148 35.025717 48.833202 65.981204 88.553308
2025-09-14 8.310358 14.161845 22.389206 34.348797 50.790624 72.079180 101.138975
2025-09-21 6.865551 12.800593 21.663034 35.181504 54.525344 80.408884 116.749772
2025-09-28 5.172740 10.668710 19.435692 33.511812 54.507494 83.556214 125.504526
2025-10-05 4.463777 9.983162 19.255909 34.738001 58.557332 92.329666 142.099720
2025-10-12 3.818055 9.261737 18.885686 35.569132 61.996784 100.328596 157.879915
2025-10-19 3.258466 8.573777 18.452752 36.205950 65.111239 107.930432 173.327922
2025-10-26 2.831776 8.053410 18.224280 37.115536 68.645237 116.237729 190.029815
2025-11-02 2.313537 7.208874 17.272902 36.673013 69.951495 121.224880 202.031615
2025-11-09 1.950367 6.623083 16.718976 36.842156 72.208474 127.684821 216.359381
2025-11-16 1.583325 5.957875 15.973255 36.710545 74.159481 134.079604 231.351636
2025-11-23 1.199288 5.116774 14.725253 35.516159 74.237723 137.586037 242.203787
2025-11-30 1.013281 4.773557 14.496594 36.239806 77.662479 146.530557 261.675650
2025-12-07 0.783438 4.193550 13.613777 35.544798 78.477856 151.236356 274.666541
2025-12-14 0.667885 3.953148 13.498875 36.399990 82.137956 160.736091 295.477794
2025-12-21 0.475218 3.313827 12.245334 34.685116 80.876366 161.919921 303.027270
2025-12-28 0.416644 3.197860 12.351889 35.944533 85.313085 172.904706 326.682139
2026-01-04 0.354470 3.030696 12.284607 36.798039 88.997568 182.711259 348.674725
2026-01-11 0.296795 2.849109 12.140050 37.451922 92.311951 191.974143 370.010454
2026-01-18 0.253653 2.717012 12.117787 38.385767 96.222269 202.398435 393.527112
2026-01-25 0.193264 2.428955 11.547206 37.931459 97.284101 207.796554 408.784280